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202

Ford, Interview with Oren Etzioni, in Architects of Intelligence, p. 494.

203

Ford, Architects of Intelligence, p. 528.

204

Эта оценка пессимистична по сравнению с результатами других опросов. Поскольку многие из них проводились на конференциях по ИИ, охват исследователей с разным профессиональным уровнем был намного более широким. Большинство прогнозов появления универсального ИИ с вероятностью 50 % приходится на 2040–2050 годы. Список опросов см. в сноске 63 в главе 5.

205

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206

Наш путешественник во времени вторит бывшему министру финансов и директору Национального экономического совета Лоуренсу Саммерсу, который в ноябре 2016 года предсказал, что к 2050 году от четверти до трети мужчин трудоспособного возраста будут вытеснены из трудовых ресурсов. (См. сноску 1 в главе 6.)

207

David Axelrod, «Larry Summers,» The Axe Files (podcast), episode 98, November 21, 2016, omny.fm/shows/the-axe-files-with-david-axelrod/ep-98-larry-summers.

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210

См., например: Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne, «The future of employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerisation?», Oxford Martin School Programme on Technology and Employment, Working Paper, September 17, 2013, www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/future-of-employment.pdf, p. 38.

211

U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, «Unemployment rate (UNRATE),» retrieved from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, July 18, 2020, fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE; Greg Rosalsky, «Are we even close to full employment?» NPR Planet Money, July 2, 2019, www.npr.org/sections/money/2019/07/02/737790095/are-we-even-close-to-full-employment.

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213

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214

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215

U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, «Business sector: Real output per hour of all persons (OPHPBS),» retrieved from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, July 22, 2020, fred.stlouisfed.org/series/OPHPBS; U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, «Business sector: Real compensation per hour (PRS84006151),» retrieved from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, July 22, 2020, fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PRS84006151.

216

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217

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218

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219

Gwynn Guilford, «The great American labor paradox: Plentiful jobs, most of them bad,» Quartz, November 21, 2019, qz.com/1752676/the-job-quality-index-is-the-economic-indicator-weve-been-missing/.

220

Elizabeth Redden, «41 % of recent grads work in jobs not requiring a degree,» Inside Higher Ed, February 18, 2020, www.insidehighered.com/quicktakes/2020/02/18/41-recent-grads-work-jobs-not-requiring-degree.

221

«The Phillips curve may be broken for good,» The Economist, November 1, 2017, www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2017/11/01/the-phillips-curve-may-be-broken-for-good.

222

Jeff Jeffrey, «U. S. companies are rolling in cash, and they’re growing increasingly fearful to spend it,» The Business Journals, December 12, 2018, www.bizjournals.com/bizjournals/news/2018/12/12/u-s-companies-are-hoarding-cash-and-theyre-growing.html.

223

Martin Ford, Rise of the Robots: Technology and the Threat of a Jobless Future, Basic Books, 2015, pp. 206–21.

224

Martin Ford, Interview with James Manyika, in Architects of Intelligence: The Truth about AI from the People Building It, Packt Publishing, 2018, pp. 285–286.

225

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226

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227

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228

James Manyika, Susan Lund, Michael Chui, et al., «Jobs lost, jobs gained: What the future of work will mean for jobs, skills, and wages,» McKinsey Global Institute, November 28, 2017, www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/future-of-work/jobs-lost-jobs-gained-what-the-future-of-work-will-mean-for-jobs-skills-and-wages.

229

Ferris Jabr, «Cache cab: Taxi drivers’ brains grow to navigate London’s streets,» Scientific American, December 8, 2011, www.scientificamerican.com/article/london-taxi-memory/.

230

Kate Conger, «Facebook starts planning for permanent remote workers,» New York Times, May 21, 2020, www.nytimes.com/2020/05/21/technology/facebook-remote-work-coronavirus.html.

231

Alexandre Tanzi, «Gloom grips U. S. small businesses, with 52 % predicting failure,» Bloomberg, May 6, 2020, www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-06/majority-of-u-s-small-businesses-expect-to-close-survey-says.

232

Alfred Liu, «Robots to cut 200,000 U. S. bank jobs in next decade, study says,» Bloomberg, October 1, 2019, www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-02/robots-to-cut-200-000-u-s-bank-jobs-in-next-decade-study-says.

233

Jack Kelly, «Artificial intelligence is superseding well-paying Wall Street jobs,» Forbes, December 10, 2019, www.forbes.com/sites/jackkelly/2019/12/10/artificial-intelligence-is-superseding-well-paying-wall-street-jobs/.

234

«Top healthcare chatbots startups,» Tracxn,