современных исследований, формальные модели, исследование операций. Результаты опроса выявили следующую картину предпочтительности методологий – в порядке убывания: регионоведение, разбор современных примеров, разбор исторических примеров, анализ политики.

10

Ryan Crocker, комментарий на заседании комиссии по освободительным движениям корпорации «РЭНД», г. Арлингтон, штат Вирджиния, 3 февраля 2017 г.

11

Stanley McChrystal et al., Team of Teams: New Rules of Engagement for a Complex World (New York, NY: Portfolio, 2015), 28.

12

Stansfield Turner, “Challenge! A New Approach to a Professional Education at the Naval War College,” Naval War College Review 25, no. 2 (November/December 1972), 4.

13

Paul A. Jureidini et al., Casebook of Insurgency and Revolutionary Warfare: 23 Summary Accounts, rev. ed. (Washington, D.C.: Special Operations Research Office, The American University, 1962, rev. ed. 2013), 69.

14

Christopher Paul et al., Paths to Victory: Lessons from Modern Insurgencies (Santa Monica, CA: RAND, 2013); Ben Connable and Martin C. Libicki, How Insurgencies End (Santa Monica, CA: RAND, 2010); Paul A. Jureidini et al., Casebook of Insurgency and Revolutionary Warfare: 23 Summary Accounts, rev. ed. (Washington, D.C.: Special Operations Research Office, The American University, 1962, rev. ed. 2013); Paul J. Tompkins, Jr. and Chuck Crossett, eds., Casebook on Insurgency and Revolutionary Warfare: Volume II, 1962–2009 (Fort Bragg, NC: U.S. Army Special Operations Command and The Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, 2012); Erica Chenoweth and Maria J. Stephan, Why Civil Resistance Works: The Strategic Logic of Nonviolent Conflict (New York: Columbia University Press, 2011); and Gene Sharp, Waging Nonviolent Struggle: 20th Century Practice and 21st Century Potential (Boston: Extending Horizons Books, 2005).

15

См. разъяснения к данным условиям в: Unconventional Warfare, Joint Publication 3-05.1 (Washington, D.C.: Joint Chiefs of Staff, 2015), I-4-I-5.

16

David Tucker and Christopher J. Lamb, United States Special Operations Forces (New York: Columbia University Press, 2007), 162.

17

David C. Gompert and Hans Binnendijk, The Power to Coerce: Countering Adversaries Without Going to War (Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2016), 24–25.

18

William J. Daugherty, Executive Secrets: Covert Action and the Presidency (Lexington: The University Press of Kentucky, 2006), xiii-xiv.

19

Daugherty, Executive Secrets, xiii-xiv.

20

См., напр., Torrey Taussig, “The Rise of Personalist Rule,” Brookings Institution website post, 23 March 2017; Ian Bremmer, “The Strongman Era,” Time, 14 May 2018; Garry Kasparov and Thor Halvorssen, “Why the Rise of Authoritarianism is a Global Catastrophe,” The Washington Post, 13 February 2017; Amanda Taub, “How Autocrats Can Triumph in Democratic Countries,” The New York Times, 18 April 2017; Ari Shapiro interview with Larry Diamond, “Decline in Democracy Spreads Across the Globe as Authoritarian Leaders Rise,” NPR’s All Things Considered broadcast, 3 August 2017; Maria J. Stephan and Timothy Snyder, “Authoritarianism is Making a Comeback,” The Guardian, 20 June 2017; Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Erica Frantz, “How Democracies Fall Apart,” Foreign Affairs, 5 December 2016; and Larry Diamond, “Democracy in Decline,” Foreign Affairs, July/August 2016. Свежие публикации: the May/June 2018 issue of Foreign Affairs includes: Ronald Inglehart, “The Age of Insecurity: Can Democracy Save Itself?”; Yascha Mounk and Roberto Stefan Foa, “The End of the Democratic Century: Autocracy’s Global Ascendance;” Ivan Krastev, “East- ern Europe’s Illiberal Revolution: The Long Road to Democratic Decline;” and Elizabeth C. Economy, “China’s New Revolution: The Reign of Xi Jinping.”

21

Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Erica Frantz, “How Democracies Fall Apart: Why Populism Is a Pathway to Autocracy,” Foreign Affairs, 5 December 2016.

22

James F. Dobbins, Foreign Service: Five Decades on the Frontlines of American Diplomacy (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press, 2017), 211.

23

Ronald Inglehart, “The Age of Insecurity: Can Democracy Save Itself,” Foreign Affairs, May/June 2018, 20.

24

Torrey Taussig, “The Rise of Personalist Rule,” Brookings Institution website post, 23 March 2017.

25

Thomas S. Szayna et al., Conflict Trends and Conflict Drivers: An Empirical Assessment of Historical Conflict Patterns and Future Conflict Projections (Santa Monica: RAND Corporation, 2017), 28–30.

26

U.S. Army Special Operations Command, Unconventional Warfare Pocket Guide, v1.0, 5 April 2016, 5.

27

James Callanan, Covert Action in the Cold War: U.S. Policy, Intelligence, and CIA Operations (London: I.B. Tauris, 2010), 47.

28

Callanan, Covert Action, 47.

29

Jimmy Carter, White House Diary (New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2010), 382.

30

Carter, White House Diary, 387–388.

31

Ronald Reagan, An American Life (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1990), 301.

32

U.S. Department of State, Office of the Historian, “Report on the Office of Special Operations of the Central Intelligence Agency by the Deputy Assistant Director of Special Operations (Kirkpatrick),” 31 August 1951, Foreign Relations of the United States, 1950–1955: The Intelligence Community, 1950–1955, https://history. state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1950-55Intel/d87.

33

Callanan, Covert Action, 17–19.

34

Tim Weiner, Legacy of Ashes: The History of the CIA (New York: Doubleday, 2007), 19.

35

Weiner, Legacy of Ashes, 25–26.

36

Weiner, Legacy of Ashes, 25–26.

37

Weiner, Legacy of Ashes, 29.

38

Peter Grose, Operation Rollback: America’s Secret War Behind the Iron Curtain (New York: Houghton Mifflin Company, 2000), 152–153.

39

Grose, Operation Rollback, 153–154.