при диверсификации.

171

Эта глава основана на идеях, изложенных в статьях: Ron Adner, Rahul Kapoor. Innovation Ecosystems and the Pace of Substitution: Reexamining Technology S-Curves. Strategic Management Journal 37, no. 4 (2016): 625–648 и Ron Adner, Rahul Kapoor. Right Tech, Wrong Time. Harvard Business Review 94, no. 11 (2016): 60–67. Авторы рассматривали вопросы выбора времени для замены, используя данные и анализ переходов между десятью технологическими поколениями в экосистеме полупроводниковой литографии, произошедших в период с 1972 по 2009 год.

172

Я впервые ввел понятия риска совместных инноваций и риска цепочки внедрения в книге The Wide Lens: What Successful Innovators See That Others Miss (New York: Penguin/Portfolio, 2013). Там в первую очередь рассматривался вопрос о фундаментальной важности понимания рисков и управления рисками, лежащими за пределами вашей собственной деятельности, для успешной стратегии выхода на рынок. Здесь же мы рассмотрим, как эти факторы влияют на динамику конкуренции. Прим. авт.

173

See Nathan R. Furr and Daniel C. Snow, “Intergenerational Hybrids: Spillbacks, Spillforwards, and Adapting to Technology Discontinuities,” Organization Science 26, no. 2 (2015): 475–493.

174

Bill Gates, The Road Ahead: Completely Revised and Up-to-Date (New York: Penguin Books, 1996), 316.

175

Интересующихся читателей отсылаю ко второй главе книги The Wide Lens: What Successful Innovators See That Others Miss (New York: Penguin/Portfolio, 2013). Там содержится анализ трудностей с совместными инновациями, не оправдавшими ожиданий при переходе к 3G-телефонии. Параллели между тем переходом и переходом от 4G к 5G весьма занятны.

176

Curt Nickisch, “How One CEO Successfully Led a Digital Transformation,” Harvard Business Review, April 8, 2020, https://hbr.org/podcast/2019/12/how-one-ceo-successfully-led-a-digital-transformation.

177

Curt Nickisch, “HBR’s Curt Nickisch and Nancy McKinstry Talk Digital Transformation,” Wolters Kluwer, January 17, 2020, https://www.wolterskluwer.com/en/expert-insights/curt-nickisch-and-nancy-mckinstry-talk-digital-transformation.

178

Nickisch, “HBR’s Curt Nickisch and Nancy McKinstry Talk Digital Transformation.”

179

Nickisch, “How One CEO Successfully Led a Digital Transformation.”

180

Wolters Kluwer, 2004 Annual Report, December 31, 2004, 13, https://www.wolterskluwer.com/en/investors/financials/annual-reports.

181

Wolters Kluwer, 2019 Annual Report, December 31, 2019, 6, https://www.wolterskluwer.com/en/investors/financials/annual-reports.

182

“Zebra Technologies Corporation” FundingUniverse, accessed October 21, 2020, http://www.fundinguniverse.com/company-histories/zebra-technologies-corporation-history/.

183

“Zebra Technologies Completes Acquisition of Motorola Solutions’ Enterprise Business,” Zebra Technologies Corporation press release, October 27, 2014, https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/zebra-technologies-completes-acquisition-of-motorola-solutions-enterprise-business-108625228.html.

184

Промежуточные рынки возникают благодаря изначально присущей рынкам неоднородности. Более подробную дискуссию см. в статье Ian C. MacMillan, Rita Gunther McGrath. Crafting R&D Project Portfolios. Research-Technology Management 45, no. 5 (2002): 48–59. См. также: Ron Adner, Daniel Levinthal. The Emergence of Emerging Technology. California Management Review 45, no. 1 (2002): 50–66.

185

David P. Hamilton, “23andMe Lets You Search and Share Your Genome — Today,” VentureBeat, January 23, 2018, https://venturebeat.com/2007/11/17/23andme-lets-you-search-and-share-your-genome-today/.

186

Andrew Pollack, “F.D.A. Orders Genetic Testing Firm to Stop Selling DNA Analysis Service,” New York Times, November 25, 2013, https://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/26/business/fda-demands-a-halt-to-a-dna-test-kits-marketing.html.

187

Stephanie M. Lee, “Anne Wojcicki’s Quest to Put People in Charge of Their Own Health,” San Francisco Chronicle, March 1, 2015, https://www.sfchronicle.com/news/article/Anne-Wojcicki-s-quest-to-put-people-in-charge-6108062.php.

188

Elizabeth Murphy, “Inside 23andMe Founder Anne Wojcicki’s $99 DNA Revolution,” Fast Company, October 14, 2013, https://www.fastcompany.com/3018598/for-99-this-ceo-can-tell-you-what-might-kill-you-inside-23andme-founder-anne-wojcickis-dna-r.

189

Charles Seife, “23andMe Is Terrifying, But Not for the Reasons the FDA Thinks,” Scientific American, November 27, 2013, https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/23andme-is-terrifying-but-not-for-the-reasons-the-fda-thinks/.

190

Denise Roland, “How Drug Companies Are Using Your DNA to Make New Medicine,” Wall Street Journal, July 22, 2019, https://www.wsj.com/articles/23andme-glaxo-mine-dna-data-in-hunt-for-new-drugs-11563879881.

191

Barry Greene, “+MyFamily Program with 23andMe Aims to Increase Awareness of TTR-Related Hereditary Amyloidosis in Families,” Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, September 17, 2019, https://news.alnylam.com/patient-focus/articles/myfamily-program-23andme-aims-increase-awareness-ttr-related-hereditary.

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“23andMe Signs a Strategic Agreement with Almirall,” 23andMe press release, January 13, 2020, https://mediacenter.23andme.com/press-releases/23andme-signs-a-strategic-agreement-with-almirall/.

193

Anadiotis, “Why Autonomous Vehicles Will Rely on Edge Computing and Not the Cloud.”

194

Fred Lambert, “Tesla Reaches 10 Billion Electric Miles with a Global Fleet of Half a Million Cars,” Electrek, November 16, 2018, https://electrek.co/2018/11/16/tesla-fleet-10-billion-electric-miles/.

195

Ингемар Дирикс и Карел Коол ввели в стратегическую литературу понятие дезэкономии сжатых сроков как ключевой фактор, который нужно рассматривать при оценке устойчивости конкурентного преимущества фирмы, в своей эпохальной статье Asset Stock Accumulation and Sustainability of Competitive Advantage, Management Science 35, no. 12 (1989): 1504–1511. Применение концепции дезэкономии сжатых сроков в контексте технологических инвестиций, которые делаются перед лицом возможного подрыва рынка, позволяет перенести эту идею и в литературу по инновациям.

196

Justin Bariso, “Tesla Just Made a Huge Announcement That May Completely Change the Auto Industry. Here’s Why It’s Brilliant,” Inc., September 3, 2019, https://www.inc.com/justin-bariso/tesla-just-made-a-huge-announcement-that-may-completely-change-auto-industry-heres-why-its-brilliant.html.

197

Kirsten Korosec, “Tesla Plans to Launch an Insurance Product ‘in about a Month,’” TechCrunch, April 24, 2019, https://techcrunch.com/2019/04/24/tesla-plans-to-launch-an-insurance-product-in-about-a-month/.

198

Fred Imbert, “Buffett Knocks Elon Musk’s Plan for Tesla to Sell Insurance: ‘It’s Not an Easy Business,’” CNBC, May 5, 2019, https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/04/warren-buffett-on-tesla-id-bet-against-any-company-in-the-auto-business.html.

199

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200

Dave Smith, “This Might Be the Only Recent Apple Product Steve Jobs Would Have Loved,” Business Insider, July 9, 2015, https://www.businessinsider.com/apple-pay-is-the-best-new-service-from-apple-2015-7.

201

Stephanie Mlot, “Isis Mobile Wallet Finally Launches Nationwide,” PC, November 14, 2013, https://www.pcmag.com/news/isis-mobile-wallet-finally-launches-nationwide.

202

Ingrid Lunden, “Google Is in Talks with Mobile Payments Company Softcard,” TechCrunch, January 16, 2015, https://techcrunch.com/2015/01/16/softcard/.